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Dunny’s NFL Weekly Run Down – Superbowl Sunday
Chris Dunne
angryfans.ca
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
So the big day is finally here. Football fans from around the world have been looking forward to this for months. The beers have been bought, the pizzas are ordered and your buddies are en route. Everybody loves Superbowl Sunday whether it’s because of the delicious grub, the hilarious commercials or just the game itself. This sacred Sunday is looked forward to by millions and it finally here once again. So grab a seat on the couch and get ready to enjoy the game, but make sure you read through AF’s Superbowl rundown first. Here we go.
Everything that happened during the season and playoffs is history once the big game begins. It’s a fresh start for both teams and it makes every Superbowl a tough one to call. So many factors can be looked at when analyzing these two teams, but one thing we can be sure of is that it’s going to be one top notch Superbowl. For the first time in decades, the league’s top seeds go head-to-head in the championship showdown and the Saints and Colts are both are aware of the expectations fans have for this game. Two gun slinging QB’s facing off in the final is exactly what the NFL wants and it’s going to be exciting to see how this one pans out. It should make for a high scoring affair and one hell of a game so let’s break it down shall we.
With Peyton Manning leading the way the Colts offense has been absolutely dynamic this season and playoffs. The icing on the cake took place last week when Peyton picked apart the league’s top defence throwing for 3 touchdowns and 377 yards. There is no question he’s been the reason for Indy’s playoff success and he’s been spreading the play around tremendously. This causes major match-up issues for opposing defences and the Saints are going to have trouble covering all of his weapons. He’s going to look towards Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clarke, especially if Wayne is hampered by this knee injury. Garcon is playing like a man possessed and he’s been fuelled emotionally by the disaster in Haiti. He’s going to be playing with a heavy heart today and I expect big things from him. He’s also going to rely on his security blanket in Dallas Clarke on numerous occasions since the Saints blitz so heavily. Indy lacks the good receiving RB out of the back field so Manning has to look underneath to his TE. He’s been successful with this strategy thus far and I can’t see it being any different come Sunday. The lack of run game is a major concern heading into the Superbowl today. I know they got this far being a one dimensional offence, but things are different in the big game. They are playing against one of the league’s best offences and trying to keep the ball out of his hands is going to be tough without a run game to kill the clock.
On defence, the injury to Dwight Freeney is a devastating blow for the Colts. No question he is their top pass rusher and probably top defensive player. If he can’t play at 100% it’s going to be costly. They have to find a way to get to Drew Brees and it’s going to be even tougher to do without Freeney on the field. A normally conservative defence may have to change its plan a little and come up with some exotic blitzes in order to get pressure up the middle because they can’t afford to let Brees sit back in the pocket. Gary Brackett needs to have a huge game and the Colts are going to be relying on his leadership to keep this young defence on their toes. The Colts will have to find a way to deal with a major match-up issue on the outside with 5’10 corner Powers likely trying to cover Marcus Colston. They want to keep Antoine Bethea freed up as he is far and away the top ball lurking player in the secondary. If the Colts can cause any interceptions they will likely come from him and I don’t expect to see him in coverage too much. The Colts defence certainly has some question marks around it and with such a young unit the pressure could get to him. This game is likely going to turn into a shoot out so if they can cause a couple 3 and outs or turnovers, Peyton should do the rest.
For the Saints offence, X-Factor Reggie Bush is going to be crucial in coming up with a win. Playing against the 24th ranked rush D, the ability to run the ball and keep it out of Peyton’s hands is going to be vital. Reggie Bush has shown flashes of greatness and today he is going to need to come up huge. Regardless of Reggie’s play, all eyes are on Drew Brees and he has to go toe-to-toe with one of the best QB’s in history. With so many weapons and playing against a weaker defence, the match-up is definitely in the Saints offensive favour. If Brees can get time without Freeney in the line-up and progress through his options it’s going to be a long day for the Colts. One of Brees receivers is going to have to step up. I’m expecting Colston to have a big game however Shockey should step up and set an example as he plays a leadership role on this offence. Also look for the RB’s out of the back field on screens and swings as New Orleans loves doing this to open things up and slow down the pass rush. One concern here is that the Saints don’t have many players on offence that have been to the big game before. A relatively young squad has to keep their composure here and continue to play like they have all season and playoffs.
On the other side of the ball, the Saints defence has been under a lot of scrutiny about how they can’t keep up with Peyton and rightfully so. Ranked 25th in the league, there is a lot of question marks around this unit but one thing they do well is create turnovers. This is something that can’t be over looked and Peyton Manning has to be aware of where Darren Sharper is at all times. He is going to be one-on-one with Dallas Clark for the majority of the game and it is going to be interesting to see who gets the upper hand. Covering Reggie Wayne is also going to be a task for the Saints and look for a lot of double coverage in an attempt to slow him down. This defence has speed so I’m not expecting to see them get beat deep, but it’s working the ball underneath that the Saints have to be aware of. Peyton is going to look for the 5-10 yard plays and work his way down the field and they have to come up with some way to shut this down. Vlima has to step up today as he hasn’t played up to his potential this season. This guy usually steps up in big games and the Saints are going to be counting on him today. They can’t let Peyton out smart them and I think if they can play relaxed and stick to their game plan they can potentially limit Peyton’s ability to drive 80 yards every possession.
I started writing this article with the mind set of taking the Colts. But as I began to write and looked at the stats and situations, slowly my mind set began to change. The Colts haven’t played an offence like this for weeks. When you look at the Ravens and Jets, neither team has a high powered offense, especially through the air. The Colts defence hasn’t been exposed to a good offensive threat so I question their ability to slow down the Saints as they have so many weapons. Then I looked at the offenses of each team, and sure the Saints don’t have anything to compete with the Peyton-Wayne connection but is there anywhere else the Colts are that much better at then the Saints. The run game goes to the Saints. Indy may have a slight advantage in the O-line but nothing major. The depth at WR is almost on par, maybe a slight edge for Indy, and it’s the top 2 QB`s in the league. On defence, neither has anything to brag about, but the advantage goes to the Saints for their ability to create turnovers. It’s going to be a close one with lots of points put up and I know I shouldn’t do this but I have to take the Saints by less then 7.
Fearless Forecast: Saints 34 Colts 31
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